Encephalartos aemulans

Assessor: Sarah Schumann

Sensitive in 2010
No
Family
Zamiaceae
Reason for the sensitivity status
This taxon is sensitive as it is threatened with illegal collection of wild individuals, causing population decline. Evidence shows that the Encephalartos genus is in high demand in international trade for ornamental and horticultural purposes as well as local medicinal purposes. The species has a small population size, slow growth rates and infrequent recruitment which makes it vulnerable to further population loss. Releasing data on this species can exacerbate threat and vulnerability.
This species is extremely rare in the wild and is known to be exploited, utilised or traded. The localities of remaining populations need to be protected to avoid any further exploitation, which is likely to drive it to extinction.
Exploitation extent
Significant - wild individuals of the species are known to be exploited, collected, traded or utilized in a targeted manner, and utilisation is widespread, affects the majority of wild populations and/or is causing rapid decline of the wild population.
Justification and references

All South African cycads as well as this species is included in Appendix I of the CITES Convention which lists all species threatened with extinction that are, or may be affected by trade. According to the SANBI Red List Assessment, this species is Critically Endangered as it is threatened with ongoing illegal collection causing the decline in its population (Donaldson 2009). Furthermore this species is threatened with reproductive failure and habitat destruction (Donaldson 2003). Cycad species are in trade demand and at risk from illegal collection (Smith 2014; Yeld 2014). There is strong evidence for the ongoing and rapid decline of most cycad species due primarily to illegal removal and this is especially evident with endangered and critically endangered Encephalartos species (Okubamichael et al. 2016; Cousins & Witkowski 2017). The CITES Trade Database has recorded the trade of the species in the form of live, leaves and seeds from 1995-2018 for commercial, personal, artificial propagation and botanical garden purposes. Sourced from artificial propagation and taken from the wild (seeds). 

CITES trade statistics derived from the CITES Trade Database, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK.

Cousins, S.R. and Witkowski, E.T.F., 2017. African cycad ecology, ethnobotany and conservation: a synthesis. The Botanical Review83(2), pp.152-194.

Donaldson, J.S. 2003. Cycads. Status survey and conservation action plan. IUCN/SSC Cycad Specialist Group, Gland, Switzerland; Cambridge, UK.

Donaldson, J.S. 2009. Encephalartos aemulans Vorster. National Assessment: Red List of South African Plants version 2020.1.

Okubamichael, D. Y., S. L. Jack, J. D. Bösenberg, M. T. Hoffman & J. S. Donaldson. 2016. Repeat photography confirms alarming decline in south African cycads. Biodiversity Conservation 25(11): 2153–2170.

Smith, D. 2014. 1 September 2014. South Africa's ancient cycad plants under threat from poachers. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/01/ancient-cycad-plants-under-threat-poachers

Yeld, J. 2014. 7 August 2014. Cycad thieves strike again. IOL. Available at: https://www.iol.co.za/news/cycad-thieves-strike-again-1731799

Population vulnerability
Population is vulnerable: size is <= 2500 mature individuals OR the number of known subpopulations is <= 5 OR range is <= 100km2 OR species at risk of localised extinctions
Justification and references

This species Non-Detriment Findings (2016) state there are 600 mature individuals remaining in the wild and the extent of occurrence is less than 2 km².

Government Gazette No. 40021. 27 May 2016. Non-detriment findings for Encephalartos aemulans. Issued by the Scientific Authority of South Africa.

Targeted demographics
Mature (breeding) individuals are killed, significantly weakened or are permanently removed from the wild, OR immature individuals are targeted and this significantly impacts mature (breeding) individuals.
Justification and references

According to the CITES Trade Database, whole live individuals and seeds are being traded. The SANBI Red List Assessment mentions the removal of the whole plant permanently from the wild.

Donaldson, J.S. 2009. Encephalartos aemulans Vorster. National Assessment: Red List of South African Plants version 2020.1

Regeneration potential
This species has a slow population growth rate, or the growth rate varies depending on habitat, and there is a poor chance the wild populations will recover from exploitation OR a collector might feasibly harvest the entire extant population removing the chance of subsequent recruitment.
Justification and references

Research shows that cycads are generally long-lived, have slow growth rates, produce low numbers of offspring and have infrequent recruitment (Golding & Hurter, 2003; Okubamichael et al. 2016; Cousins & Witkowski 2017).  Encephalartos species are known to experience population decline from removal of adult plants (Donaldson 1995). Viable seed production in Encephalartos populations tends to decline with decreasing population size (Cousins & Witkowksi 2017).  The ongoing illegal collection of the species combined with its highly restricted range makes for a poor chance of recovery of its population in the wild. However active seedling regeneration is occurring (Donaldson 2009). Smaller subpopulations are more likely to experience declines than larger subpopulations as a result of fragmentation processes (Golding & Hurter 2003).

Cousins, S.R. and Witkowski, E.T.F., 2017. African cycad ecology, ethnobotany and conservation: a synthesis. The Botanical Review83(2), pp.152-194.

Donaldson, J.S., 1995. Understanding cycad life histories, an essential basis for successful conservation. In: Donaldson, J.S. (Ed.), Cycad Conservation in South Africa, Issues, Priorities and Actions. The Cycad Society of South Africa, Stellenbosch, pp. 8–13.

Donaldson, J.S. 2009. Encephalartos aemulans Vorster. National Assessment: Red List of South African Plants version 2020.1

Golding, J.S. and Hurter, P.J.H., 2003. A Red List account of Africa's cycads and implications of considering life-history and threats. Biodiversity & Conservation12(3), pp.507-528.

Okubamichael, D. Y., S. L. Jack, J. D. Bösenberg, M. T. Hoffman & J. S. Donaldson. 2016. Repeat photography confirms alarming decline in south African cycads. Biodiversity Conservation 25(11): 2153–2170.